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09/09/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The old adage "better late than never" does not always ring true. However, after years of turning a blind eye to the seedy practices at play in college sports, the NCAA has recently gone on a crusade for which the sport of football, in particular, is paying a heavy price this year.
Unscrupulous activities in college athletics have been a Hollywood punchline forever (i.e. One on One, Blue Chips, He Got Game, The Program, Johnny Be Good), and many years after those films were created, the NCAA has apparently amplified its effort to meet the issues head on, culminating in a record number of inquiries, investigations, suspensions and dismissals.
USC's transgressions during the Reggie Bush years, and subsequent punishment, represent just the tip of the iceberg it seems.
The SEC has now made its way into the NCAA crosshairs, and it looks like the body is intent on making an example of the nation's top conference. Illegal practices on the campuses of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina have come to light recently, and only time will tell what other programs join the party and what the fallout will be.
The Bulldogs will be without the services of perhaps the nation's top wide receiver for one-third of the season, as All-American A.J. Green has been handed a four-game suspension for selling his Independence Bowl jersey to an individual who is regarded as an agent by the NCAA definition.
Green is certainly saying all the right things, indicating he has learned from his mistake.
"I want to apologize to my coaches, teammates, and the Georgia fans for the mistake in judgment," Green said in a statement. "I very much regret all that has taken place and the distraction that's been caused. I've learned a valuable lesson and hope others can learn from my mistake. I can only focus my attention now on practicing and looking ahead to getting back with my teammates as quickly as possible."
It may be a costly lesson learned for head coach Mark Richt and his Bulldogs, especially since they open up SEC play this weekend against South Carolina.
At the same time, Steve Spurrier's Gamecocks have their own issues in terms of an NCAA investigation and sanctions, with the indefinite absence of tight end Weslye Saunders having brought the team unwanted headlines. The senior, who is linked to a national probe regarding illegal agent activity, is not the only Gamecock coming under scrutiny. At least six other South Carolina players are being investigated regarding their living arrangements at a local hotel.
The NCAA made a stop in Gainesville this summer as well, looking into possible impropriety surrounding money given to All-American center Maurkice Pouncey by an agent prior to last year's Sugar Bowl. It remains to be seen what impact that investigation will have on the Gators' program.
The focus of the NCAA's wrath has extended beyond the SEC, and the program hit the hardest has probably been North Carolina. Butch Davis was missing quite a few star players for the season-opener against LSU, and it definitely played a role in the narrow loss to the Tigers. All-American candidates Robert Quinn and Marvin Austin are regarded as two of the top down linemen in all of college, but both are under NCAA investigation for alleged interaction with an agent, as well as their work with a tutor who may have done papers for some UNC players. Davis was forced to use what amounted to a skeleton crew in the season-opener, as the team was also without RBs Shaun Draughn and Ryan Houston, WR Greg Little, CBs Kendric Burney and Charles Brown and S Deunta Williams. The investigation has taken its toll on Davis' staff as well, with associate head coach John Blake stepping down.
The NCAA has also beaten a path back to its familiar territory of Tuscaloosa, with the two-game suspension handed down to star Alabama defensive end Marcell Dareus the latest controversy for a program that has had its fair share of it over the years. Once again, it centers around alleged contact with an agent. The defending national champs will be just fine on the field awaiting Dareus' return, but an All-American candidate on the shelf for a defending national champion hardly enhances the positive P.R. profile of college football.
I guess the NCAA should be given some credit for finally deciding that enough is enough. Painting the problem with a broad brush and being heavy-handed in delivering punishment is way overdue. The pandemic of "breaking the rules" wasn't created in a day and it will take a lot longer than that to fix it.
For now though, at least the NCAA has made a stand.
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(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.
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